A series of almost comprehensible football rants, thoughts and views.








Tuesday, 13 September 2011

The Joy of Stats – In Potency

With the strikers main task to put the ball in the back of the net as regularly as possible there is surely one statistic that defines their goal scoring prowess, his ratio of games per goal. There was a time when I could be found trawling through the Wikipedia pages of strikers gone by to find the best and worst ratios, this time I decided to narrow my search and concentrate solely on the strikers of the Premier league.

Here is how I conducted the research; the Wikipedia page of every Premier league club has a ‘current squad’ section with positions defined into GK, DF, MF etc. So for every player who had a FW position I added them to the list. The statistics for more gravitas however came from BBC Sport, what follows is an analysis of my findings.

This analysis was carried out on a grand total of 119 players who have scored over 8,000 goals in 26,000 games between them. Obviously some players’ careers are in their infancy so for fairness I’ve only included players who have played 50 or more senior career games.

As with any leader board we shall start at the bottom, players mentioned here are somewhat stealing a living and kidding themselves when they call themselves a striker, as they clearly couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo.

The Bottom 3 are as follows (and to be honest I’m not very surprised with any of them)

3. Victor Anichebe – he averages a colossal goal every 9.3 games, extrapolate over a whole season Evertonians could expect to see him bag season defining 4 goals. Yes he’s sometimes played out of position, yes his hard work helps others, but seriously 13 goals in 121 games, no wonder Everton struggle for goals.

2. Franco Di Santo – head and shoulders above of Anichebe, Di Santo will score your team a goal every 18 games, he already has two this season (which amazingly doubled his career total) so Wigan fans, that’s him done.

1. Nile Ranger – Now when I’ve seen him he’s not been too bad, but boy do the statistics not back this up. Ranger will again get you two goals in a season, but his ratio is at 19.3 games per goal. Mike Ashley, do you wish you had bought a new striker now? 

Nile Ranger: He shoots...he misses
Other worthy mentions of players down at the bottom are David N’Gog who gets a goal every 5.6 games therefore being the 12th worst ratio. Then two players who have played more than 700 games between them, quite often at a lower standard, have only scored just over 100 goals yet somehow find themselves on the books of Premiership clubs, Mamady Sidibe and Patrick Agyemang I’m talking about you.

Now I’m afraid I’m going to keep you waiting for the top awards (place your bets now for who you think has the best ratio) by offering you another piece of analysis, the clubs strike force. Now to make this fair I have narrowed it down to strike partnerships as with some clubs their third striker is either a youth striker or just not as good as their main two. At the bottom of the list we have Stoke City, their most potent partnership of Kenwyne Jones and Peter Crouch average a goal every 3.3 games. Rory Delap keep pumping those throws into the box, they’ll get on the end of them eventually. Somewhat surprisingly next is Aston Villa, mainly due to Darren Bent being let down by his partner. Agbonlahor and Bent would average a goal every 3.2 games, yet Bent alone has a ratio of 2.3 games per goal. The Top six in the list is comprised of 5 of the Top 6 six sides from last year the one that is missing is Arsenal they have an abysmal partnership average of 3 games per goal, the 5th worst in the league (for those interested it’s Van Persie and Young). Norwich City are the side that complete the Top 6 as they seem to have already analysed these statistics before purchasing their strikers as Morison and Holt both have very impressive ratios (yes this weren’t Premier league goals but a goals a goal here).

Right...to the top of the list the facts and figures you’ve all been waiting for!

3. Carlos Tevez – The want away striker averages a goal every two games in his career, yet it’s even better for his current club Man City, averaging a goal ever 1.7 games. He may want to go but on this showing City will want to keep him (as if they didn’t know that already)

2. Luis Suarez – The man was a sensation in Holland and many Scousers think he could turn out to be as influential for them. With a ratio of 1.7 games per goal he should get you 22 goals a season.

1. Edin Dzeko – When he joined Man City in January almost everyone thought wow this lad will do well...until he played that was and then the fans were wondering if they had a dud on their hands. The new season has come around and a new Dzeko has turned up scoring goals a plenty. He needs to keep that up if he wants to keep his average up, as with a goal ever 1.6 games he’s statistically the most potent striker in the Premier league. 

Looking like this I think the only place Tevez scores is on the pitch
Other worthy mentions for strikers at the top end of the league are Demba Ba, who might find himself carrying a large weight of expectation for goals on his shoulders at St James’ Park as he is 10th with a goal every 2.3 games, better than Wayne Rooney at 2.4 and Jermain Defoe at 2.4 also.

A statistic that surprised me was that out of the 119 forwards analysed only 35 have played more than 50 games for their current club, the search for success at clubs seemingly lies with the strike force, so when the club isn’t performing new strikers are being sought as the solution as they do say goals win games.

Finally below are few trivia questions to keep your mind busy –

1. Which striker has scored the most goals in his career?

2. Which striker has made the most career appearances?

3. Which striker has made the most career appearances for his current club?

4. Which striker has scored the most goals for his current club?

If anyone would like the spreadsheet I created for this analysis please tweet me. 

Josh

1 comment:

  1. Great piece of work, clearly you've done your research and the results are very interesting. Good to see Holt and Morison up there!

    ReplyDelete